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Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has expressed confidence that Ghana’s inflation rate will remain below 5 percent by the end of 2026, despite growing concerns over the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global commodity and energy markets. His assurance follows a slight setback in Ghana’s disinflation trend in April, when headline inflation rose to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent in March, marking the first increase after 15 consecutive months of declining inflation.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Dr. Forson acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to Ghana’s inflation outlook, particularly through rising petroleum and fertiliser prices, as well as potential disruptions to global supply chains.
“The conflict poses challenges in terms of petroleum product prices and, most importantly, fertiliser costs and supply chains. Availability is not a concern to us at the moment. The challenge has to do with price increases,” he said.
Despite these risks, the Finance Minister maintained that Ghana is well-positioned to withstand external shocks thanks to strong foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold production, and favourable commodity prices.
According to him, the absence of fuel subsidies reduces fiscal pressure while the country’s reserves provide capacity to meet foreign exchange demand for critical imports.
“The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. We have also built significant reserves,” he stated.
Dr. Forson added that rising gold output and high international gold prices are strengthening the country to withstand external shocks.
“Our gold production is going up and gold prices remain high. Ghana is therefore in a comfortable position to withstand these shocks,” he noted.
While admitting that inflation could face some upward pressure in the coming months, he said the increase would likely be modest and remain manageable.
“We may see some pressure on inflation. It is currently around 3.4 percent, but I still believe we will be better off and that inflation will not exceed 5 percent by the end of the year,” he said.
The Finance Minister also highlighted improving conditions in Ghana’s export sector as another factor supporting the inflation outlook.
He noted that although cocoa prices had recently declined, they are beginning to recover, while the country continues to benefit from crude oil exports.
“Cocoa prices have started going up again. We are also an oil-exporting country, so we continue to earn foreign exchange from our major exports,” he explained.
Story by Efua Nessa